Eco News September 2024 - To Conceive or not Conceive, that is the question.

I had a very pleasant conversation with a wedding guest while scything in the churchyard this summer. We got chatting about Eco church and then she said that the problems of the environment were really all about over-population. It is an argument I have often been faced with.

Greenhouse gas emissions are not so much related to population growth as to affluence. In the UK we contribute 7.1 tonnes per year each; in the USA it’s 17 tonnes, while in the Congo it’s 0.1 tonnes. That means births in the Congo would have to rise by 170 to be the equivalent of one American baby. If we want to hold populations responsible, let’s start with private jet, swimming pool and multiple SUV owners, frequent fliers and those with palatial air-conditioned homes before we blame the average African!

Of course, people in Africa and India are desperate to rise out of poverty to enjoy a more affluent existence just has we have done over the past 200 years, but we must help them to do that by leap-frogging fossil fuels and building their affluence on clean energy.

Secondly, the challenge of population we actually face is of implosion not explosion. Birth rates in all western countries are tumbling. Here in the UK it is now 1.49 babies per couple. In 3 generations that means a population of 100 will be reduced to 41. A 59% reduction! In China, South Korea and Japan birthrates are in free-fall. Even in Sub Saharan Africa, birthrates are reducing. There are simply not going to be enough young people to sustain our economy and look after us in our old age.

The picture here is currently being disguised by greater life expectancy and immigration, such that population is rising even while birthrates are falling, but in the second half of this century, developed countries are going to be competing for immigrants to keep their industries and services functioning.

Young people are struggling to afford homes of their own. Rents are astronomical and house prices are prohibitive. How many of us put off having children until we felt secure about the home we lived in? Coupled with student debts of over £50,000, we have made the decision to start a family a very difficult one for young people.  I met several potential parents over the summer who are also agonizing whether it is still a wise, responsible and loving thing to bring a baby into this world, fraught as it is with political dangers and increasingly extreme weather events. 
This is a very intimate aspect of the threat that is often labelled ‘existential’.

Photo by Edward Gildea - in Glasgow

Edward Gildea, Eco Team Leader